Electoral Affairs

Ivory Coast - Libya - Myanmar - Egypt - Ethiopia - Hong-Kong - EPRS - Repression - Foreign Interference - Social Media... and vintage BBC shows + some music.

The Reads 

1. Ivory Coast - Côte d'Ivoire

The opposition parties ended the election boycott and the country heads now towards legislative polls. In October, President Ouattara had sought to subvert two-term constitutional limits and argued that a 2016 revision of the constitution reset his term counter to zero, allowing him to seek a third term. “The process was marred by an opposition boycott; calling for civil disobedience and violence that claimed scores of lives”. The anticipated legislative elections are to be called for 6 March.
The Carter Center partnered with the Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa to conduct election observation of the upcoming elections. 

2. Libya 

The 74 members of the UN-led Libyan Political Dialogue Forum (LPDF) have selected an interim Prime Minister and President of its new executive council. The new government's task is to lead the country towards elections, due to take place on 24 December this year.

3. Myanmar

The Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL) points to the fact that the coup interrupted the electoral process, as the Election Management Body - the Union Election Commission (UEC) - was to appoint election tribunals to resolve the electoral disputes when the military intervened. During the coup, a number of officials were detained, including the Chairmen of the UEC. Meanwhile, the election officials of the region express their solidarity with detained colleagues during the coup.  

Brian Klaas, probably the best modern scientist investigating despotic regimes, coups, and power, is rather clear in his assessment that "It wouldn't be surprising if the generals in Myanmar saw Trump's false accusations of widespread fraud after the election and decided to use a similar approach as a pretext for something they were already planning to do: seize power". I strongly recommend Klaas’s writing in the Washington Post on US democracy and his two magnificent books. 

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has an interesting take, calling Myanmar's overthrow a “veto by a coup”.

4. Egypt

The Project on Middle East Democracy: “Egyptians and foreign analysts continue to debate what went wrong after February 2011”. While definitely worth reading, none of them actually get to the heart of the matter: the order in which you conduct the elections after the transition. In Egypt, the elections were conducted in the exact opposite way to a process that secures peace. Because, in order to have stronger support for the state institutions (or less interest in questioning them), more people need to be involved in the execution of power.

That is why parliamentary assemblies, regional parliaments, or even local councils are the place to start, the presidential elections being the conclusion of the cycle.

In the Presidential elections, there is only one winner, who takes it all. But when tensions are high there can not be only one winner, or in other words: there cannot be so many losers. So in order to deflate the conflict one must provide alternative channels of winning, for many. Hence assemblies, be it constituent, regional or parliamentary are the place to start after turmoil. 

5. Ethiopia 

You can always count on Chatham House. Ethiopia is scheduled to hold general elections on 5 June 2021, to appoint members of the House of Peoples’ Representatives and regional state councils, following the postponement of the August 2020 date by the National Election Board (NEBE) due to COVID-19. Check out the recording of the debate: Ethiopia’s Elections: Context, Challenges and Prospects for Pluralism.

Tool: Open, Free and Short briefing papers by the European Parliament

Open knowledge does not always go with quality. This one does. The European Parliament, a globally unique institution, invests well in research. The work of its European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS) is absolutely incredible. 

You can find their really-all-you-need-to-know short briefing papers by topical digest or by the most recent and keywords. One of the best examples is this one, with plenty of most recent data about the correlation between economical, social and democratic developments, check it out: “Democratic institutions and prosperity: The benefits of an open society”. Overall their products are matching the highest standards and most of all, because of the time-sensitivity of parliamentary work, they are absolutely well-timed. So if you think of any recent top-news: Navalny, Digital Human Rights, Liability of Online Platforms, you name it, it is there! and written by the smartest brains Europe has. 

Transnational Repression
The Freedom House published the first-ever global study of transnational repression, the act of governments reaching across borders to silence dissent. It includes detailed case studies on key countries involved in transnational repression: China, Iran, Russia, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.​​​ ​​​​​​Unfortunately, this pattern of cross-border violence and intimidation is growing and spreading across the world. 

Foreign Interference 

China is acquiring leverage over policy choices, political attitudes, and narratives in some parts of the Western Balkans. Russia is upping its game yet again in the region, as reports EVC.
India retains a ban on 59 Chinese apps, including TikTok. Furthermore, Graphika is reporting that “The sprawling pro-Chinese propaganda network that Graphika has dubbed “Spamouflage” and exposed multiple times over the past two years has begun to break out of its echo chamber of fake accounts and reach real social media users”.
The two other biggest disinformation, fake news and cyberattacks originators, Russia and Iran, just signed an agreement on cybersecurity cooperation. A recent report discovered that two hacking groups at the service of the Iranian government are conducting an espionage campaign against dissidents, academics, and government officials in Europe and the United States. These GMFs weekly updates will keep you in the loop of all recent developments. 

Technology 

MEMO 98, a Slovak non-profit specializing in media-monitoring, looked at Kazakh social media from November 2020 through January 2021. The monitoring included 48 different actors – politicians, political parties, media outlets, and official authorities – with accounts on Facebook and Instagram.

Seemingly Unrelated Extras 

"Do Not Split" - a dramatic documentary on the reality of Hong-Kong’s democracy movement street protest; compiled by the Norwegian journalist and filmmaker Anders Hammer between October 2019 and July 2020, "Do Not Split" is composed of incredible on-the-ground and from-the-air footage of the protests. 

Seriously Unrelated But Also Good

Chillpop Music is a combination of graphic artwork and chill music vibes on youtube. As far as I am concerned there is nothing more relaxing than vintage radio dramas and recordings, especially when it is BBC and in one playlist.